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Mid-day Update… Air pocket, indeed. – If, Then… Market Timing

Mid-day Update… Air pocket, indeed.

Not getting better.

es_090916_noonThe noon hour low was so oversold that it would either bounce to refuel, or else capitulate. The market seems to have chosen the latter path. Making it more bearish is that the market didn’t have to choose the more pessimistic path. This morning’s bias-down signal had remained influential throughout the noon hour as did Wednesday morning’s bearish Pivot Reversal. The air pocket down to the 2140.00 area was fulfilled.

Consolidating narrowly at or above 2140.00 for an hour broke lower into the bias environment. Although probed lower, the 2137.50 bias-down target was touched by the 1:20 bar to avoid renewing the bias-down signal. That doesn’t change whether this is a bias-down environment — it is, and fresh lows are now attacking 2131.00, which is 41 points under yesterday’s cash session close.

es_090916_noon_wideI’ve been commenting in the chaRTroom about this being a very bearish pattern. Today’s price action has been a continual series of lower lows and lower highs. The gap down back to last Thursday’s close has extended below the multi-day consolidation that had developed into last Thursday. And just look at the damage being done to the bigger picture.

Today will not form a bottom, and Monday will be unusually vulnerable to repeating today’s pattern of gapping down and extending sharply lower throughout. Having said that, entering the noon final hour back above the bias environment’s 2138.00 high could get squeezed up to 2150.50.