Mid-day Update… Another over-sized shoe yet to drop?

Market feeling heavy as it won’t leave its lows.

This morning’s bias environment trended straight down throughout. The window reversed from attacking recent 2388.75 highs, to probe under the 2383.50 overnight low down to this morning’s 2379.00 bias-down signal.

Did that relentless 9-point drop reflect optimism?

Perhaps. Mostly because this morning’s low stopped 2 ticks short of touching yesterday’s 2378.75 low. Yesterday’s pivotal low was touched. And if that was optimism, then there remains potential for an aggressive drop under yesterday’s lows — the capitulative leg described in the Market Tour.

This afternoon’s bias-down avoided signaling. It wasn’t even touched, despite still hovering at session lows. That’s a degree of optimism. Breaking the bias environment’s range prematurely isn’t unusual on Friday afternoons.

A bullish scenario would firm through the afternoon bias environment, whether or not to extend higher on its exit. Otherwise, approaching the bias environment’s exit around or under 2381.00 would remain vulnerable to accelerating downward into the close.