Mid-day Update… Back-and-fill, or back to decline?

REMINDER: I’M AWAY FOR TODAY’S LAST HALF-HOUR, SO MARKET WRAP WILL BE HELD EARLY…

Potential to backing-and-filling this morning became more vulnerable as the overnight rally extended. It got to 2678.00 and ignored opportunities resume, instead retracing down to 2632.75. That’s well back under yesterday’s 2648.50 late high, its afternoon high, and touching its noon hour high. This stage of the rally effort depended largely upon maintaining  excessive optimism, and avoiding yesterday’s session was optimal.

A quick dip into yesterday’s range would have kept optimism alive, but the dip has not been quick. And now the dip is threatening to extend.

This afternoon’s bias-down signal triggered, already fulfilling its target. Exiting the afternoon bias environment in an hour and recovering its 2646.25 bias-down signal would get another opportunity to resume yesterday’s recovery attempt. Trending down through the bias environment exit would remain vulnerable to resuming the decline.