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Mid-day Update… Back to business. – If, Then… Market Timing

Mid-day Update… Back to business.

Rejection attempt fails, decline resumes.

es_050516_noonInvalidating this morning’s bias-up had put into play tests of 2046.00 and 2042.00. The bias environment exit was firming from a test of 2046.00 when a Fed speaker’s comments made headlines, and triggered a spike up.

There was room to 2052.50 before that might actually resume the overnight rally effort. But 2052.50 was only touched and not triggered before reversing back down.

A sell signal triggered, as did this afternoon’s 2047.00 bias-down signal, and the 2042.00 bias-down target has been probed down to 2039.50.

Persistently oversold 3-minute RSI at the low suggests a bounce would be limited and fail. So does the low having stopped optimistically 3 ticks short of touching yesterday’s low.

Bouncing anyway has room up to 2044.00-2045.00 before suggesting a more substantial recovery underway. Otherwise, the trend remains down, next targeting 2034.75.