Mid-day Update… Beating the holiday rush.

Getting that capitulative feeling.

2431.50 did not define this morning’s low. It defined the opening hour’s low. that was after having extended yesterday’s rally overnight up to 2445.00 (ineffectual optimism). But it 2431.50 soon gave way to retest yesterday’s 2413.50 pre-open low. Attacking it to within 1 tick held through the noon hour (ineffectual optimism). The noon hour’s exit was already resolving down, and it extended to 2402.25 (pessimism).

Yesterday’s pre-open litany of all recent instances of ineffectual optimism didn’t prevent the big intraday rally. But it seems to have undermined the rally from extending. And encouraged it back down.

The 2409.75 bias-down target was overlapped at 1:20. It immediately extended down anyway, to 2402.25. And then it immediately recovered. That feels a lot like capitulation. And if the decline has run out of sellers, then a recovery won’t be far behind.

But we don’t know that the decline is done. Back under 2403.00 would target fresh lows at 2399.00 and 2393.00. If the capitulation holds, or holds a retest, then the market would likely bounce into and out of the weekend.