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Mid-day Update… Buy, dog! Bad dog! – If, Then… Market Timing

Mid-day Update… Buy, dog! Bad dog!

Gap-down buyers learning to get out sooner.

es_010716_noonThe 1948.50 open rallied 21 points to 1969.00. That’s bigger than yesterday’s post-open 17-1/2 point rally. But it’s weaker, in two regards.

First, yesterday morning’s gap down was bought almost all the way through the morning’s bias environment. This morning’s rally peaked at least 20 minutes sooner.

Second, while both reactions down ultimately extended back under their opening prints, yesterday’s probe came during the afternoon bias environment lapsing. Today’s probe under the morning’s low has come during the afternoon bias environment’s entry.

The latest sell signal triggered under 1963.25 before the morning’s bias environment began lapsing. It has already produced a 29-point drop to 1934.00. If sellers are being conditioned alongside buyers, then they’ll be increasing pressure —

— especially as the weekend’s illiquidity approaches exponentially faster with each passing minute. Steeper selling into 1932.00-1939.00 target area suggests the conditioning is complete.