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Mid-day Update… Dry grass, meet lit match. – If, Then… Market Timing

Mid-day Update… Dry grass, meet lit match.

News greets decline’s target, corrective bounce ensues.

The decline’s 2043.00 target was identified originally while the rally was still topping at 2110.00. Potential for bottoming at 2063.50 was all but dismissed Tuesday.es_061616_noon Gapping down today made 2043.00 likely to be tested this morning.

And it was, down to 2040.75. But that doesn’t equate to being a bottom.

A bottom might have formed around 2043.00. Isolating its test to one timing window, retesting it during another, and recovering to close above the morning’s 2054.00 high.

Still possible. But more difficult.

Tragic news surrounding Brexit triggered expectations for delaying next week’s vote. That wouldn’t be bearish. Its rumors were like throwing a lit match into the thick forest of selling pressures, which had dried out when its target was met

The 2053.00-2054.00 open was being tested at the bias environment’s exit. The noon hour filled the gap back up to yesterday’s 2062.75 cash session close. Consolidating back down to the 2058.00 bias-up target held and the bias-up signal has been renewed.

If the recovery extends higher today, let alone tomorrow morning — entirely possible, especially with bias-up renewed — then it would be at the expense of forming a durable bottom. Not retesting 2043.00 today would make its future retest less and less likely to hold.