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Mid-day Update… Eerily calm. – If, Then… Market Timing

Mid-day Update… Eerily calm.

Support chipped away.

A 6-point range between 2713.00-2719.00 has developed since this morning’s bias environment started lapsing. The open’s swings were wild, surging 5 points up to 2719.50 and plunging 10-11 points to 2709.00. But they weren’t so wild that the market should be so stunned. Extended periods of wide gyrations can earn periods of calm to compensate. This is not that.

Expirations are always a wild card. If their opens aren’t already trending or trying, then it’s difficult to start trending later. But this is not that, either. Today’s open did try to trend, both up into 2718.50-2719.25 resistance and back down again, twice. Developing almost exclusively in negative territory.

This afternoon’s 2713.25 bias-down avoided triggering. Its support is not being exploited. Instead, price has been hovering there, ranging narrowly, as it did through the noon hour’s second half-hour. The bias-down signal should define the no-bias environment’s lower-end until at least coming within view of lapsing. Expiration’s wild card suggests taking seriously any break lower.

As does the bearish WedEX. Two earlier setups today had potential to reverse up — the late no-bias, and the recovered plunge. Is the bearish WedEX influence already pressuring prices lower? Regardless, the indicator doesn’t require a steep slope or substantial drop. But it should at least absorb and retrace bounces. Back above 2719.00 would make downside difficult.