Mid-day Update… End of the beginning?

Lower and lower lows open door to bigger bounce.

It’s not the size that matters. Big drops can bounce a little; little drops can bounce big. The difference is from where, and when. The open’s 25-point plunge to 2720.00 was retraced 38.2%, during a timing window. But the noon hour’s 2703.75 low exited the noon hour back above the 2710.25 bias-down signal. Its reaction could be pretty powerful if not rejected.

So far, its reaction hasn’t been rejected. Bias-down didn’t trigger, after invoking the grace period. And 2722.00 is already being attacked. There’s room for noise during the late no-bias environment back up to its 2725.25 bias-up signal.

Timing windows aside, the noon hour low has held the test of a multi-week trading range’s lower-end. Not reinstating the decline this afternoon could extend the bounce well into or even through the 2730’s. The drop would become a victim of its own success, having expended a lot of selling pressure and tested a lot of supports.

Oversold RSIs at the low printed during the noon hour and so don’t require a rest. Retesting the noon hour lows would have a different objective, and extend the trend instead of recover it.