Mid-day Update… Eyes to tomorrow.

Defensively posturing today ahead of tomorrow’ FOMC Minutes?

Not only the afternoon’s FOMC Minutes release, which the past two have been unusually influential to triggering wild intraday volatility. But also the pre-open ECB policy statement and typically wild Mario Draghi press conference.

If the market intends initially to react favorably, and significant resistance begins at 2902.00, then 2897.00 was a little too close two days out. Too, too close.

The open’s drop to 2880.00 has solved that problem. Even after bouncing to within 2-3 ticks of its 2891.50 objective, and not because that is reacted down to 2883.50. But the room back up to the high and through can begin gradually retracing this afternoon while still leaving room for favorable reactions.

Meanwhile, a session-long decline setup is officially disqualified, at least for having avoided two fresh lows. But it was always suspect, so no surprises there. None of which prevents a fresh low, but bouncing remains likelier.