Mid-day Update… Fair-weather friends.

Intraday buyers bailing again.

The open’s sell signals didn’t stick and the 2847.75 bias-up target was exceeded at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. The 2853.50 renewed bias-up target was attacked to within 3 ticks neutralizing it. The 2853.00 “new Globex trend extreme” was not actually touched. Another downdraft tried to trigger a sell signal. It was productive down to 2844.75, but still contained to within its first 3 minutes.

And then time ran out, as the bias environment came within view of lapsing in 10-15 minutes. It began lapsing at 11:30 back at the 2849.75 open, ready to face the consequences of multiple failed attempts to break lower during a relevant timing window — to reverse direction aggressively. So, the morning’s 2857.00 renewed bias-up target was being probed to within 1 tick of 2859.00 into the noon hour.

Quickly fulfilling an aggressive consequence doesn’t make that aggressive consequence’s sponsorship strong-handed. The burden of proof was once again on intraday buyers. Yesterday morning’s buyers were absorbed, and the afternoon buyers had gained no traction. Today’s intraday rally was retraced 6 points to natural support at the 2853.00 overnight high.

Just in time to be extra vulnerable to exacerbating the reaction to a China trade headline. It triggered a plunge back down to the morning’s 2841.75 bias-up signal. And now the plunge has been retraced by 61.8%, like most headline-triggered plunges and surges, to attack 2852.00. The 2851.00 bias-down signal has held to trigger late bias-down.

Now two intraday rallies seem to have been sponsored by weak hands. The distribution ahead of tomorrow afternoon’s FOMC events suggests at least a very volatile reaction.