Mid-day Update… Flat, or lower?

Only one template says higher, and its clock is ticking.

This morning’s renewed bias-up extended. And extended. The renewed bias-up target was essentially Sunday night’s 2577.25 “new Globex trend extreme.” Its retest was fulfilled during the noon hour up to 2579.25. That pierced this afternoon’s bias-up signal by 1 tick, and held it. So, this is now a no-bias environment.

Friday afternoon no-bias environments tend to mean it, especially when a bias signal’s test holds. The balance of the bias environment — and often the balance of the session — simply ranges flat, if not flat to lower.

Today’s rally might seem an excellent candidate for ranging flat-to-lower. Primarily because resistance was nominal along the way up to neutralizing its objective. That might be compensated by finding significant resistance above it, which is the likeliest scenario. But since the objective was met by a single leg above the bias-up signal, the second likeliest scenario for one more probe higher remains possible.

So, how will we know? Or, how early will we know? Being a Friday, probing fresh highs through the bias environment exit tends to marginalize sellers through the close. Otherwise, breaking back under 2575.50 and 2572.50 would signal the a deeper pullback underway.