Mid-day Update… Good news is bad.

Rate hike clues about to be released.

We’ve been discussing for almost two months how the market has adapted to the potential for a rate hike. Knee-jerk reactions not withstanding, price action following good and bad econ reports has suggested getting it behind us would be bullish. Of course the actual FOMC decision would trigger a dip. But the ultimate resolution would likelier be a strong rally as that bad news becomes history.

So, this afternoon’s FOMC Minutes might trigger a knee-jerk reaction down if they reflect a willingness to raise rates. But that’s largely anticipated, so a dip would likely be temporary.

A deeper drop could follow Minutes that suggest less hawkishness. And similar to a rate hike’s knee-jerk reaction up, dovish language in the Minutes would likely first trigger a knee-jerk reaction up.

Some higher high remains likely at some point to satisfy this morning’s 2204.25 objective. Exiting the bias environment under 2104.00 would delay that upside objective for another day.

Don’t forget that after the FOMC Minutes reactions, the only influence is volume quickly evaporating ahead of the holiday. Try to avoid getting caught in an illiquid market, or expecting sponsorship to break beyond a range.