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Mid-day Update… And the guest house’s kitchen sink. – If, Then… Market Timing

Mid-day Update… And the guest house’s kitchen sink.

And higher.

The open’s surge up to 2267.75 had formed a symmetrical triangle, a pattern that tends often to break falsely in one direction before reversing more substantially in the opposite direction. Its minimum target at 2260.50 was tested down to 2259.50, and then price started reversing back up. A buy signal that triggered above 2264.00 has only now violated a pullback limit after touching 2273.00.

Overbought RSIs at the high require its retest. But nothing higher is required. Ever. The triangle’s reversal has been more substantial than its false break. Retesting Sunday night’s high was likely to visit 2270.00. And this afternoon’s 2272.00 bias-up target was met, while testing it too late to renew the bias-up signal.

A reaction down to 2269.00. could extend to 2266.50 and not yet begin to damage the chart’s uptrend.Greeting tomorrow’s FOMC news at this point in the pattern would be strength. Having probed fresh highs ahead of the news, today’s close must be back under 2266.00 to at least suggest the upside momentum is lapsing.