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Mid-day Update… High hopes. – If, Then… Market Timing

Mid-day Update… High hopes.

Morning recovery not yet rejected.

es_032217_noonThe session’s first hour had trended down from 2342.00 to 2333.00. Another 2 points lower was targeted for having triggered bias-down. But suddenly an 11-point spike up was revisiting 2342.00.

Whatever triggered that recovery remains unspecified. But it was apparently more bullish than London’s terror attacks were bearish. Consolidating amid the headlines eventually resolved by spiking up again, 9 points to 2348.00.

That was 6-8 points into positive territory. And it was too shallow to invalidate the bias-down, so 2331.00 is “unfinished business below.”

A descending triangle that formed into the noon hour broke lower to test the 2336.75 bias-down signal. It didn’t trigger. Its reaction up to 2344.00 is back to unchanged around 2341.00.

The rally’s catalyst probably isn’t the opposite of what triggered yesterday’s plunge. Whatever it is might not be enough to avoid fresh session lows, let alone extending down to 2327.00 or 2317.00. But exiting the bias environment at fresh session highs would get every benefit of the doubt for extending higher near-term.