Mid-day Update… At home in the range.

Is the market hovering into Thursday morning?

The reaction down from attacking 2790.00 had first fallen to 2766.00. Its reaction failed, and fresh lows tested 2757.00. That’s not an arbitrary low. Recall that rallying into the two-week old high had targeted 2753.25 and 2757.00. Only the former was tested up to 2755.00. Now that area is support.

Its reaction up to 2773.00 suggests the market recognizes this support. The reaction’s peak under this afternoon’s 2775.25 bias-up signal suggests the market isn’t yet comfortable with this support.

2757.00 can be tested down to 2753.25 without even suggesting a more substantial downleg is underway. Ranging through today and tomorrow wouldn’t be surprising, in between Fed chair Powell’s House and Senate testimonies. Meanwhile, the range’s upper-end could test 2791.00.

Breaking under 2753.25 through a relevant timing window would instead suggest the 1987-style crash template is developing. Its greatest window of vulnerability is today and tomorrow. Its potential downside could be avoided, or replaced by a surge of equal proportion, if left to develop organically. But the current pattern is fragile enough — extended and holding resistance with no further upside requirement — not to tolerate a very negative headline.