Mid-day Update… Hover, or hide.

No-bias doesn’t prevent late-rally, but leaves a path down.

The consequence to invalidating this morning’s bias-up signal was to probe a fresh extreme in the opposite direction. So, the 2050.50 opening print was probed to a fresh post-open low at 2048.25. Its attraction was another 3 ticks lower, so it was essentially neutralized.

The reward for absorbing the fresh low was to test 2056.00. That also became this afternoon’s bias-up signal. It was tested and held in time to trigger no-bias, and now the bias environment’s upper-end should be defined by 2056.00.

Hovering here would position the market strategically to resume Friday’s rally when the bias environment begins lapsing. Backing-and-filling could still recover and rally, but probably not from under 2051.00. Similarly, attacking post-open lows would position the market near this afternoon’s 2047.50 bias-down signal for a late-afternoon drop.

In either case, whether resolving up or down would be likely to extend in that direction through Wednesday morning. Rallying through today’s final hour would signal what Friday’s rally didn’t, that the ongoing decline did end at 2030.00. A new downleg today would instead resume the decline, which the limited bounce has maintained.