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Mid-day Update… Late trap. – If, Then… Market Timing

Mid-day Update… Late trap.

Sellers have difficulty hanging on.

Gapping up to 2731.50 and initially probing 1 point higher had stopped short of touching the 2734.50 overnight high. The balance of the morning trended down. The gap back to yesterday’s 2718.50-2721.25 closes was tested into the bias timing window — which held, trapping sellers.

Trapped sellers were only so many. A corrective bounce up to 2728.50 was too late to invalidate the bias-up signal, and it resolved down to 2710.25 going into noon. But the requirement for an offsetting test of this morning’s 2704.75 bias-down signal has become “unfinished business below.”

Now more trapped sellers have helped to trigger the afternoon bias-up. The second probe into negative territory wasn’t maintained coming out of the noon hour. The likely reward is a probe above the overnight high to 2736.50.

Otherwise, back under 2723.00 would start to suggest momentum reversing down anyway. Actually launching a new downleg should be very obvious at the time.