Mid-day Update… It might not be over.

Morning’s surge retraced, but not yet punished.

The open’s surge got a benefit of the doubt for extending higher because of Friday Factors. Otherwise, the opening 15 minutes of volatility had only retraced yesterday’s 2436.50 prior high, but had not yet exceeded it. The reward was new highs up to 2443.50.

The pattern since Wednesday afternoon has been to probe prior highs, and then to fail. This morning’s probe above prior highs has kept the pattern alive, as it has failed.

Overbought RSIs at the high weren’t retested before already slipping a little when the bias environment began lapsing. The noon hour retraced the entire post-open rally. Actually, half the noon hour retraced to within 2 ticks of the open’s gap up. Now after renewing the afternoon’s bias-down signal, yesterday’s 2430.25 cash session close is being probed down to 2428.00.

Reversing this morning’s rally would target 2419.25. Avoiding it would require trapping shorts. Now having probed negative territory, exiting the afternoon bias environment back in positive territory would suggest the session low is made.