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Mid-day Update… Morning rally shrinks. – If, Then… Market Timing

Mid-day Update… Morning rally shrinks.

Retesting the open’s lows.

No-bias triggered this morning after already having come within 3 ticks of the 2345.50 bias-up signal. es_041317_noonThat’s close enough not to become “unfinished business below” if not actually touched. It wasn’t.

Meanwhile, breaking lower would have potential to at least 2337.00. A break lower did begin soon after the bias environment began lapsing. Its 2337.00 minimum objective was tested during the noon hour. And now probing more than 2 points lower is threatening the next lower objective at 2333.00.

This is not a bias environment, so trending isn’t restrained. The only restraint is this being the afternoon prior to a three-day holiday weekend. That timing’s difficulty in attracting new sponsorship is almost offset by the proximity to prior lows.

We don’t know with a 100% degree of certainty that a durable downleg is not underway, or that the decline will end today at whatever price. Even if we did, fresh lows to 2327.25 would remain possible. And even the most bullish scenario might not avoid that without triggering this afternoon’s 2338.25 bias-up signal.