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Mid-day Update… Not so fast, there. – If, Then… Market Timing

Mid-day Update… Not so fast, there.

Morning rally is retraced.

The open’s 2681-2686 range had resolved up sharply. Yesterday’s late 2700 high was recovered, the 2707 bias-up signal was triggered, and eventually its 2722 bias-up target was probed up to 2727.

Then the bias-up environment began lapsing. The predictable was done and RSIs were deteriorating. Dipping into the noon hour eventually broke lower to probe most of the open’s 2681-2686 range. That also held the 2690.25 bias-down target through 1:20 to avoid renewing the bias-down signal. And now a bounce just touched 2706.

Despite not renewing the bias-down signal, this is still a bias-down environment. Its 2701 bias-down signal should define the window’s upper-end regardless of already having met its target. Recovering it through the bias environment exit would be credible for another short-squeeze like yesterday. Meanwhile, probing above it would require its retest before rallying would be reliable.

Back under 2697.50 (being tested now) would start to signal another downleg underway. This being Wednesday that has already rallied decisively while satisfying buying pressure, there’s vulnerability to a Wednesday Wreveral that ends the session decisively negative. But that bearish potential should be obvious before entering the final hour if it’s going to develop today.