Mid-day Update… One and done?

Is it possible for today’s drop to both begin and end a correction?

It’s very rare for a bias signal to be invalidated. This morning’s no-bias signal was triggered by having failed to maintain the probe above its 2374.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. It was nearly invalidated by probing under its 2364.75 bias-down signal at 10:30, except that it was still being overlapped.

Only one more opportunity remained to invalidate the bias signal. And it was exploited by exiting the bias environment under its 2359.75 bias-down target. Whatever had developed to change the environment so substantially, its new sponsorship is strong-handed. This morning’s bias-up target is not unfinished business above.

Sort of. This morning’s bias-up target is also essentially already unfinished business from yesterday at 2380.00. But for purposes of near-term trending, strong hands are sellers.

The drop’s objective at 2342.00 is being tested now, and probes under it down to 2340.25 are also overlapping it. Any lower could test a prior pattern’s “lower prior highs” down to 2335.50.

Here’s an interesting feature to patterns which is counter-intuitive. Drops that originate from a new high or during its initial reaction down are likely to last through multiple sessions, and then be likely to recover. Drops tend to take one of two widely disparate paths — either out-sizing the high’s initial reaction down in depth and duration, or else running its course very quickly.

So, today’s drop comes after a new high’s reaction has been retraced back toward the high. This is originating from a lower high. It might be short-lived, ultimately holding its test of 2342.00. And if not, it could be much deeper, next targeting 2310.00.