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Mid-day Update… Optimism is its own worst enemy. – If, Then… Market Timing

Mid-day Update… Optimism is its own worst enemy.

Noon hour bounce hasn’t gained traction.

The open’s decline extended through the morning’s bias environment. Lapsing at 11:30 was greeted by 2 detached bars probing under  the 2626.00 objective down to 2614.00, accompanied by oversold RSIs.

A good opportunity to form a bottom. But it produced a bounce.

Not just a bounce, but almost a complete retracement to within 5 ticks of the 2669.50 open’s high. So, only noise — 54 points of noise — without having hesitated at the low to reflect any accumulation.

Now the afternoon’s bias-up parameters have been tested, and rejected after invoking the grace period. This is a no-bias environment, reflecting a lot of buying pressure having been expended without gaining traction for the noon hour’s effort.

Rejecting tests of both bias-up parameters in the morning would put into play offsetting tests of both bias-down parameters. Not in the afternoon. The 2633.50 bias-down signal doesn’t require a test, but its test would likely define the window’s low. Breaking any lower — or higher — would be more credible after the bias window begins lapsing at 2:30.