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Mid-day Update… Optimistic ahead of news. – If, Then… Market Timing

Mid-day Update… Optimistic ahead of news.

More new highs, briefer consolidations.

Already breaking higher during the noon hour to 2712.00, this afternoon’s 2709.00 bias-up signal has triggered. Its 2714.00 bias-up target is in-play. It’s too late to invalidate the signal at 1:30. So it could be invalidated only by avoiding a fresh high above 2712.00 and then exiting the bias environment at 2:30 back under the afternoon’s 2703.00 bias-down signal.

The noon hour’s breakout does risk being too optimistic ahead of the 2:00 FOMC Minutes. An initially favorable knee-jerk reaction could fulfill 2714.00 and then reverse down. Already fulfilling 2714.00 before the Minutes could react down more durably.

Actually closing above 2703.00 would put into play 2722.00-2727.00 regardless of today’s high. Overbought RSIs at the high printed during the noon hour, so no retest of the high is required. Not first fulfilling 2714.00 would leave unfinished business above, but not closing above 2703.00 would be more relevant.