Mid-day Update… Pins AND needles.

Waiting for the FOMC news.

Opening at the morning’s 2792.50 bias-up signal eked higher through the morning to touch the 2796.00 overnight high. That’s an intraday test above prior intraday highs. Trending back down through the noon hour probed the open’s 2790.75 low by 3 ticks. That’s the minimum margin to make the fresh low non-arbitrary.

Rejection of a fresh high? Maybe. Maybe a premature warning. Maybe a false warning.

This morning’s bias-up signal triggered, and its 2798.00 bias-up target has become “unfinished business above.” A decline could form first, and be productive. That’s not common, but neither are FOMC policy statements. Regardless, an initially favorable knee-jerk reaction up that reverses back down is the most bearish scenario. Ultimately trending up above overnight highs is the most bullish.

Don’t forget that the policy statement is followed a half-hour later by the Fed Chair’s quarterly Q&A. This tends to be the month’s most opportunistic window for quick, big moves. Be careful if positioned already ahead of either news.