Mid-day Update… Playing defense.

Still trading exclusively in negative territory.

Today’s gap down to 2804.50 bounced to 2813.25, but still triggered the 2807.75 bias-down signal. Its 2800.75 bias-down target remains outstanding.

Now the noon hour has touched this afternoon’s 2815.25 bias-up signal, which held. It didn’t trigger, despite reversing down to the 2806.00 bias-down signal in time to invoke the grace period. But it was still being overlapped — by a probe well under it to 2804.00 — to trigger noN-bias. The 2806.00 bias-down signal need not define the window’s lower-end.

The 2:00 FOMC policy statement is a catalyst for volatility. The two likeliest templates for a knee-jerk reaction:

• Down to satisfy the 2800.75 “unfinished business” below and become vulnerable to rallying back up to either 2811.00 or else to the 2818.00 overnight highs.
• Up to recover 2811.00 or 2818.00 and either extend higher through Friday morning, or else collapse into the close.

Meanwhile, there’s no requirement to trend in either direction, beyond the overnight range. But for this afternoon’s news event, it’s almost getting a little late for a reversal down to be credible.