Mid-day Update… Playing into weak hands, or just playing them?

Corrective bounce potential fully tested.

Corrective bounce potential up to 2020.50 was realized fully. Every bar printing above it by as much as 1 point up to also overlapped it. All of which developed during the bias-down environment, which was exited back under its 2019.25 bias-down target.

There is no bearish reason to bounce higher. Sellers don’t require further refueling, downlegs don’t need higher retracements. So bouncing any higher would marginalize sellers for the day.

Meanwhile, the bounce developed entirely during the bias-down environment. Its sponsorship was weak-handed. Being just hours away from the 3-day holiday weekend, weak-handed sponsorship may continue to find less opposition. So, a bigger bounce would marginalize sellers for the day.

Just retesting the high wouldn’t qualify as a bounce. Piercing the bounce’s 2021.50 high wouldn’t necessarily be a bigger bounce. Its retest could still hold. Having said that, and having reacted down already to 2016.00, just delaying the decline’s resumption to its 2009.00 target would undermine the downside, anyway.