Mid-day Update… Slippery oil.

Afternoon rally undermined by Crude Oil drop.

The gap back up to yesterday’s 2264.50 close was only filled this morning, never probed. That wasn’t the differential to rallying later — sellers had already failed to retake control when that was required. But the likelihood for an afternoon rally would have been greater without sellers even trying to retake control again. Which they did.

Reaction to this morning’s EIA release sent Crude Oil down. The market fell with it from 2263.00 to 2256.50. Probing lower down to 2254.00 was retraced entirely through the noon hour back up to 2256.50.

The 2260.50 bias-up signal didn’t trigger, despite invoking the grace period. Hovering at it until the bias environment lapses would be vulnerable to then breaking higher, and essentially fulfilling the bias-up target.

Exiting the bias environment back under 2256.50 and lower would confirm what exiting the bias environment under the morning’s bias-down signal had suggested — undermining the afternoon rally scenario and all but reversing momentum down.