Mid-day Update… Sneak attack.

Focus on Iran pushes price down… to support?

The catalyst for this morning’s drop was notice of a press conference that would be viewed as anti-Iran deal. And anything anti-Iran deal is viewed as a reason to sell.

Despite holding tests of room for noise up to 2681.00, the open’s consolidation above 2677.00 had created a position of strength.Not that it could prevent reacting down, but reacting down would likely recover. Reacting down to 2672.00 did recover back into the range above 2677.00, retracing it by 38.2% — not 61.8% — and triggering no-bias instead of bias-up.

The noon hour’s entry attacked the 2662.25 no-bias objective. The noon hour probed it to within 1 point of the afternoon’s 2653.25 bias-down target. That’s a lot of selling pressure.

Like this morning’s bias-up signal, this afternoon’s 2661.50 bias-down signal test invoked the grace period. Unlike this morning, the grace period is still testing the signal to trigger noN-bias. It’s possible the timing window was impacted by Netanyahu’s actual press conference. Having fulfilled the bias-down target to within 1 point, rallying would be credible — especially with the press conference now having ended.

Already 2664.50 is being tested. All of this morning’s drop can be recovered for being a reaction to non-market news. But now having tried to recover, triggering another sell signal after already reacting down from 2681.00 could launch the next downleg.