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Mid-day Update… Sneaking up on sleeping sellers. – If, Then… Market Timing

Mid-day Update… Sneaking up on sleeping sellers.

Noon hour rally rewarding its weak-handed sponsorship.

Not testing 2266.00 bias-up signal by 10:15 meant not rejecting it. And that meant no es_012417_noonconsequence of an offsetting test of the bias-down signal. It also meant not extending above 2266.00 during the no-bias environment. A probe above it was retraced as the bias environment began lapsing, and left no unfinished business below.

Now price has extended to fresh session highs into the noon hour. Into the noon hour, and out of it. Fresh session highs are attacking this afternoon’s 2275.25 bias-up target to within 2 ticks. And the bias signal doesn’t even trigger for another 5 minutes.

The series of higher highs and higher lows is forming a trend, so it’s premature to anticipate its reversal down. RSIs diverging negatively may be preparing for the trending to peak, but that doesn’t equate to a sell signal — which would be indicated by a reversal setup or topping pattern.

Originating after the bias environment lapsed is allowing the trend to persist intraday. Regardless, yesterday’s pattern considers this rally has premature because of the shallow open. Doomed to failure, or not, new highs and a new high close are possible today. But then so would be a relatively abrupt reaction down.