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Mid-day Update… But square-one was kind of iffy. – If, Then… Market Timing

Mid-day Update… But square-one was kind of iffy.

Will recovery back up to prior highs prove only a Pyrrhic victory?

Greeting this afternoon’s bias environment at 2356.00 triggered no-bias. Cleanly. Spiking up to 2360.75 at 1:30 doesn’t change that. The 2357.50 bias-up signal was probed too late to invalidate the no-bias. In fact, the spike was retraced almost immediately by 61.8%, testing 2357.50 as support.

And still testing 2357.50 as support. Trending above it would be “no-bias trending,” doomed to failure, back down to the 2357.50 bias-up signal, if not also the 2355.25 1:20 print, and possibly lower.

Potentially much lower. Remember how not recovering 2357.50 through a relevant timing window keeps the afternoon vulnerable to capitulating into the weekend? Well, probing above 2357.50 inappropriately increases that vulnerability.

Which all sounds pretty ominous. Because it can be… if triggered. A probe under last week’s 2317.75 test of would be in-play. Meanwhile, don’t discount the power of failing to trigger the trend’s bias signal Friday morning. The burden of proof here is definitely on sellers.