Mid-day Update… Steeeeretched.

Not done, but overdone.

The open’s one opportunity to reverse down from gapping up was under 2927.00. But it was probed by only 3 ticks, and never any deeper than its first 3-4 minutes. It was also the post-open low. Price action since then has trended up relentlessly to 2938.50.

The degree to which the rally has reached doesn’t make it any more vulnerable to peaking, or to pausing, or to reversing. But it just tested this afternoon’s 2936.50 bias-up signal and fail to trigger. This is a late no-bias environment.

Trending strongly intraday to new highs through multiple consecutive timing windows is difficult to reverse. So, reversing down is unlikely. The setup tends to be followed by a lot of buyers below the market, their limit orders acting as buffers to rolling over.

Nevertheless, the futures premium to its underlying cash has contracted by 2 ticks since yesterday, so at least a shallow a pause or backing-and-filling is possible. The no-bias environment has room to test its 2929.50 bias-down signal just as noise. Probing deeper would be “no-bias trending” and require being recovered. That, or after the bias window starts lapsing, could extend down to 2925.00 or 2920.25 if the unlikely develops.