Mid-day Update… Still no bears, but where’s the bulls?

Open’s surge has yet to extend.

The open’s surge to 2698.00 was retraced to test 2693.50. Repeatedly. Its 3-minute low essentially held, and 2693.50 is still an active inflection point. Its break would likely test the 2692.50 opening print, which would be normal to serve as support. Its test as support would likely be probed down to 2688.00, so recovering its test back above 2693.50 would marginalize sellers.

That bullish scenario is in place of this morning’s, which was signaled back above 2696.00. Its signal is still in-play. Extending to within 1 tick of the open’s 2698.00 high should have extended higher to 2699.75-2700.75 or 2703.00. But the noon hour and its exit is still ranging around 2696.00.

This afternoon’s no-bias environment could probe fresh session highs, and fulfill upside potential. Optimism seems excessive ahead of tomorrow’s tax reform vote, and amid the interim headline risk. But the later the origin of a downdraft without yet probing this morning’s high, the shallower and/or briefer it’s likely to be. A more credible downdraft would follow fresh highs.