Mid-day Update… Straightened up.
Shallow morning pullback recovers to resume the rally.
The corrective dip from 2482.00 was shallower than it was brief. Its potential to 2477.50 was barely attacked to within 5 ticks. A narrow range there finally resolved up as the bias environment began lapsing.
Extending higher through the noon hour touched 2487.00. This afternoon’s 2484.75 bias-up signal triggered, putting into play its 2490.00 bias-up target. There has yet to be a fresh high.
Let’s clarify what today’s test of July’s “pivotal high” means, and what it doesn’t mean. As with any pivotal high test, the actual high is now all but assured to be tested, too. That’s 2486.00 basis Dec and 2488.00 basis Sep, and both have been pierced by 3 ticks. It’s also almost 2491.00 basis S&P Cash (SPX) which is still 1 point away.
I first addressed the pivotal high’s attack on the last rally leg. Testing it and entrenching the uptrend then would have made the next upleg likely to probe significantly higher. Last Tuesday’s drop created a new downleg. Its distribution has changed the reliability of a new high having substantial consequences. It’s not ruled out, but it’s not as likely.
Meanwhile,remember that today’s upleg is NOT a session-long rally. Regardless of how it has behaved so far, or how it might still behave, its setup wasn’t optimal. Afternoon stagnation or even reversal down is still possible.
