Mid-day Update… Stuck in the muddle.

Post-open reversal down hasn’t recovered, with FOMC looming.

This morning’s 2100.50 bias-down signal held its test to signal no-bias, putting into play an offsetting test of the 2109.50 bias-up signal. Attacking it to 2106.50 does not satisfy it.

It could have been rejected by breaking under 2100.50 by 10:30, but it was still being overlapped. Probed, but overlapped. Exiting the bias environment at 11:30 under the 2094.75 bias-down target could have invalidated it, too. But despite the bias environment developing under the opening range, it didn’t trend down to the bias-down target, let alone break it.

A test of this morning’s 2109.50 bias-up signal has become “unfinished business above” that requires eventual test.

Meanwhile, an opportunity to isolate the bias environment’s dip was not exploited. Exiting the noon hour and entering the afternoon’s bias environment above a prior high like 2102.50 may yet trap shorts. Otherwise, fresh lows at 2093.50 are likely, and a retest of yesterday’s 2091.00 low would likely break lower to 2082.00 or deeper.

The FOMC policy statement is a wild card. A negative reaction is likely since pessimism hasn’t been fulfilled or rejected — price simply remains depressed. The statement isn’t likely to raise rates, but it is likely to speak in hawkish tones. There’s reason for a knee-jerk reaction down, and little reason not to recover it.