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Mid-day Update… Suddenly, the mood shifts. – If, Then… Market Timing

Mid-day Update… Suddenly, the mood shifts.

Limited upside attraction finds air pocket below.

No complexity to the 2719.75 overnight high had relieved it from requiring intraday retest. But I was giving a retest a benefit of the doubt so long as the 2811.75 earlier Globex low held as support. Which it did, easily, well before the 2815.50 open that also tested the 2717.50 bias-up target.

The 2815.50 open even maintained its gap up to form an anchor that would rescue an attempted decline. Which it did, after retesting the 2811.75 earlier Globex low. But the rescue didn’t extend higher. And the rescue filled the 2715.50 opening gap after probing back into last Monday’s “lower prior highs.” And the anchor’s rescue quality had been neutralized. All after having met the 2717.50 bias-up target.

No “unfinished business” above didn’t require reversing down, not after triggering late bias-up. But the market collapsed anyway. Probing under the 2809.75 bias-up signal during the bias-up environment had required its retracement — until the bias environment lapsed under the 2798.25 bias-down signal to establish that sellers were stronger-handed.

Persistently oversold 3-minute RSI continually warned against buying dips or getting too exposed to bounces. But now RSIs have diverged into the eventual 2767.50 low. Late no-bias has rejected tests of both the 2769.25 and 2777.00 bias-down parameters. And their reaction is testing 2781.50 with potential to 2790.75.

Bigger picture: Today’s fresh high creates a new prior relative low from Wednesday’s dip to 2775.00. Closing under it would signal the trend reversing down. These are often defended, so a second confirming close would be required. But not already rejecting its test this afternoon could very well end the day far below it.