Mid-day Update… Tracking for a pivotal week.

Morning surge suggests bigger upleg coming.

Plunging this morning or at least breaking sharply was the only credible path down. And not only down, but to convert Friday’s retest of the prior Friday’s lows into extending the multi-week decline much lower.

Despite ranging narrowly since midnight Sunday, Monday’s open began recovering to and through this morning’s 2050.50 bias-up signal. Its 2056.00 bias-up target had room for noise above it to 2058.50, which was touched when the bias environment began lapsing at 11:30.

The noon hour was entered at session highs up to 2061.50. Holding 2056.00-2058.50 would have let the afternoon back-and-fill, but probably not do anything outright bearish. Not reacting down from 2056.00-2058.50 has left the door open to extending the rally this afternoon. And extending the rally this afternoon would likely be very aggressive.

Unless proved otherwise, upside momentum remains intact and the afternoon remains vulnerable to trending up steeply and substantially. Similar to the last two weeks’ Monday or Tuesday session-long rallies, it would be  likely to launch a larger multi-session rally back to the highs — in fact, the noon hour’s exit just touched 2062.50.

And like those last two attempts, it would be vulnerable to fail. But a credible downleg would begin before entering a timing window, and none yet has this afternoon.