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Mid-day Update… Tripping up. – If, Then… Market Timing

Mid-day Update… Tripping up.

Recovery’s surprise retracement ends surprisingly, too.

What spikes up, must spike down?

The morning’s bias environment trended up, in-line with the bullish WedEX influence. es_082216_noonHolding a test of its 2176.00 bias-down signal put into play an offsetting test of its 2185.00 bias-up signal. It became “unfinished business above” that requires being tested.

That didn’t prevent a steep downdraft. The gap back up to Friday’s cash session close produced obligatory resistance. Its likely pullback to 2180.50 was touched as the bias environment came within view of lapsing. Suddenly, priced collapsed back down to 2175.00.

Overbought RSIs require a retest of 2175.00. Meanwhile, back above 2177.75 first would require probing a fresh session high. Not too surprisingly, the upside developed first, touching 2183.50. Surprisingly, it developed by surging more steeply than price had collapsed on the way down.

Don’t blink, you’ll miss it. A reaction down is attacking 2179.00, and any deeper would start to signal new session lows in-play. Avoiding that would maintain recovery potential to fresh highs — if not also back up to last Monday’s highs.