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Mid-day Update… Troubling. – If, Then… Market Timing

Mid-day Update… Troubling.

Nothing bullish about this relentless slide.

es_101116_noonAt least a reaction to news offers the opportunity to price in the catalyst. Regardless of wide disparities among perception of that value, there’s something to value. And there’s a sentiment that can play out.

A reaction to bad news is different than price simply collapsing. Which is what is happening today.

None of today’s various news is creditable for today’s drop. Not for its relentlessness, trending down through every timing window. Not for its damage, breaking under “lower prior highs,” a gap, and prior lows. And not for its timing, immediately following a probe of prior highs.

Notice the one element I did not mention: Price. Price is relative to range, and is otherwise irrelevant. In fact, today’s drop isn’t that substantial compared to the range that it’s probing. This is even more bearish than not having a scapegoat, since there’s plenty of room to expend more selling pressure.

Currently this afternoon’s 2125.25 bias-down target is being tested. Late no-bias had triggered, by the grace of a single tick and a single minute. A more decisive no-bias would require recovering at least to 2131.00. Still possible, although oversold RSIs at the low would undermine the durability of any more upside than that. If at all.