Mid-day Update… Waiting for the other shoe.

Morning rally rejected.

Not yet extending the gap up during the opening 15 minutes wouldn’t prevent extending it anyway. It would only doom the extension to failure.

Which is what happened when gapping up to 2446.50 was only maintained, through 9:45, before surging to 2453.50. The bias environment lapsing at 11:30 was probing under the open’s print down to 2441.00.

Bouncing through the noon hour came within 1 tick of this afternoon’s 2447.75 bias-up signal. This is a no-bias environment. It has room down to the 2441.50 bias-down signal. Or, hovering at or just under the bias-up signal could still break higher later.

ECB’s Mario Draghi speaks at 3:00. He’s a reliable catalyst for injecting volatility into the market. Greeting his remarks from back under 2443.00-2444.25 would be likely to extend down into the weekend. Otherwise, a similarly favorable reaction would be likely from above 2448.50.