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Mid-day Update… A whirlwind tour. – If, Then… Market Timing

Mid-day Update… A whirlwind tour.

Choppy morning was only the half of it.

es_100416_noonQuickly recovering this morning’s dive was limited to its 2156.50 bias-up signal, which needed to define the no-bias environment’s upper-end. More than that, it pushed price back down to retest the initial dive’s 2147.75 low. And lower, down to 2145.00.

Still being a no-bias environment, and being under the 2148.75 bias-down signal, a recovery was required. Only back up to 2148.75 would have sufficed, but 2156.50 was retested. By then, the bias environment was starting to lapse, so probing above it was allowed.

But not required. The noon hour settled back in around 2148.75.

Not already recovering before the noon hour end came into view would be bearish. Retesting the morning’s lows upon exiting the noon hour would be bearish. Both conditions were met, and to erase any doubt, the noon hour’s exit slid to fresh lows at 2138.50.

Bias-down triggered, its 2140.75 target was met, and the likelihood for retesting last week’s lows down to 2138.00-2139.00 has been fulfilled. Oversold RSIs at the low undermine whether this dip can recover, but back above 2143.50 would get a benefit of the doubt. Otherwise, exiting the bias environment trending down could extending the drop into Thursday.