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No-bias, on steroids. – If, Then… Market Timing

No-bias, on steroids.

[pay]The open’s gap up probed the 752’00 bias-up signal again, and held it again. It held through 10:15 to signal no-bias, putting into play a test of the 741’50 bias-down signal. Attempts to neutralize this objective came only within 2 points before surging – first probing the open’s highs and now probing the pre-open highs – up to 757’75.

If this is still a no-bias rally, then its failure is still required, and testing the 741’50 bias-down signal now would only begin to compensate for the delay. Back under 752’00 (confirmed under 751’00) would trigger the decline’s resumption. Not just the no-bias rally’s retracement, but an extension of yesterday’s drop.

Perhaps the bias-up signal’s first reaction down had already expended too much selling pressure by 10:15 for sellers to test the bias-down signal. Maybe the bias-down signal was incorrect, and 744’00 actually fulfilled the signal’s test. A falling wedge had formed to that point, but only the 1-minute MACD & RSI were diverging positively.

Regardless, the buyers that overcame the no-bias signal to produce new session highs will need to be respected if they also maintain their recovery above 752’00 when this morning’s no-bias environment lapses around 11:30. At that point, we would get serious about getting long, and especially back above 754’00.

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