No-bias: temporary relief, and a better short-entry?

[pay]S&Ps have only improved since the opening tick, which was the cash session’s low. The ESu 1354’25 bias-down signal held repeated tests as support, so now the 1361’25 bias-up signal is likely to be tested. That would also fill the gap back to Friday’s cash session close, and possibly also attack the 1364’25 overnight highs. Pullbacks meanwhile should hold 1357’50 as support.

A word of caution: The cash session’s open left outstanding a gap that will want to be filled – more so than the bias-up signal needs to be tested. Back under 1355’00 would make the bias-up signal’s test unlikely, and then back under the 1354’25 bias-down signal would put sellers back in control for a much larger downleg.

If nothing else, this morning’s gap down invalidated the Lehman catalyst for extending the recovery. Price can still firm while the market is searching for a new reason to rally, but I don’t want to be long when the market realizes that reasons might not exist.

[/pay]