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Not up? Okay. Down, then. – If, Then… Market Timing

Not up? Okay. Down, then.

Vulnerability as an investment thesis.

The vast open space of gap above this morning”s open was barely probed. But it was probed twice, and both times failed to extend. So, in the absence of up, there is down.

Not that the pattern required resolving down. Not that its required resolution would be a straight path down. But that was the vulnerability, as much by default as by any other influence — primarily, because there was no other influence.

Anyway, the open”s tests of 1930.00 have been retraced to fresh post-open lows at 1912.50. Lest that be confused as trending or any other commitment or intent, notice that 1914.00 is this afternoon”s bias-down signal. Overlapping it within 3 minutes of the 1:20 timing window has invoked the grace period.

Having touched the 1910.50 overnight low, recovering 1914.00 through 1:30 could trap shorts. Otherwise the 1908.25 bias-down target is in-play. Being a bias-down environment and a Friday afternoon, trending down under it would likely probe 1898.50, too.