Pause that refreshes can also kill.

Big intraday rally is still only tentative.

Failing to hold the 2050.25 bias-down target through 10:15 essentially had put into play a test of 2040.25. It was probed down to 2035.00. But that was between the morning”s bias environment exit and the noon hour”s entry, both of which were above 2040.25.

So, 2040.25 qualified for having been met, and held. And it was produced by a Symmetrical Triangle, a pattern that tends initially to break falsely in one direction before reversing more substantially in the opposite direction. Was that the false break?

It seems so. The reaction up never pulled back to fulfill my retracement criteria before exceeding my 2044.50 buy signal. That has extended to attack 2061.00. But this afternoon”s 2059.25 bias-up target was still being overlapped at 1:20 to avoid renewing the bias-up signal.

So, this afternoon”s bias environment has ranged narrowly sideways around the 2059.25 bias-up target. Being a bias-up environment, the rally may extend any time it pleases. Being the bias environment will soon start lapsing, it had better extend higher soon.

My concern is that this upleg is a “noon hour counter-trend,” which bisects the afternoon”s resumption of the morning”s trend. I haven”t seen one in quite awhile, but it would target fresh session lows. And several elements of the rally are keeping it vulnerable to ending.

Probing fresh highs above 2063.00 — and extending higher, not just retesting the high”s overbought RSIs — would help to alleviate my concern about resuming the decline today. Meanwhile, back under 2053.25 would start signaling at least a dip underway, if not new lows.