Post-market Wrap… Flat-footed.
[Quick links to the post-market Wrap recording.
and to Monday’s morning bias parameters.]
I should think the title says it all. I wish. But, no, I was absolutely looking for the typical Friday ranging to resolve in a typical Friday afternoon rally into the close. And I was caught flat-footed. The session’s gap up had not been rejected, the overnight high had not been retested, and the afternoon’s bias-up had triggered. What’s down?
The bias environment had not improved since moments before triggering bias-up at 1:20. Had the bias environment lapsed still without improving, then I would have placed a short-entry. Had the bias environment’s lapsing only come within view 10-15 minutes out. Had the selling only waited.
Instead, the plunge began with half the bias environment remaining. And I do mean plunge. Price wasn’t gradually drip-drip-dripping lower, finally breaking the dike. That torture would have been merciful for at least offering clues. No, the first downticks were among the deepest. At least that unseemliness prompted me to tell the chaRTroom the drop had better stop and recover abruptly to maintain potential for fresh session highs. That potential was never to be seen again.
Dropping 27 points in one hour isn’t too shabby, for not having even hinted at its vulnerability. No hint, not beyond it being a Friday afternoon. Perhaps the week’s most unpredictable timing window is becoming more predictable. Recall how last Friday’s expiration fulfilled its bullish bias, by absorbing dips. And the moment the anxiousness of weekend exposure had subsided, Sunday night rallied sharply and extended even higher through Monday morning.
Rallying out of this weekend would be similar to the prior Friday’s head-fake bullishness. Anxiousness ahead of weekend illiquidity is pessimism, which is often bullish from a contrarian perspective. Often, but not always. Pessimism is like paranoia, and sometimes they really are following you starting the next crash leg.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording, which is extended to include a bigger picture review, here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/htpbwfy
REMINDER: THERE IS NO SATURDAY REVIEW THIS WEEKEND.