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Post-open review – If, Then… Market Timing

Post-open review

By Rod David | January 21, 2015 - 10:26 am

Overnight pullback, and then some, retraced entirely.

The overnight pullback from 2021.50 had retraced the origin of yesterday”s last surge from the 2008.00 area. Not rejecting it could have launched a reversal back to last week”s lows.

But that wasn”t the premise. Yesterday”s rally had gained traction for its effort, so the premise was that its buyers would be rewarded with control of this morning”s bias environment.

Not recovering would have invalidated the premise. But after fulfilling the potential retest of pre-open lows down to 2006.25 described during the Market Tour, word leaked about tomorrow”s ECB QE. Despite its size being criticized, the market surged to within 1 point of this morning”s 2025.25 bias-up target.

Its reaction down to 2012.00 didn”t recover the 2018.75 bias-up in time to trigger. It was still being tested at 10:15 to invoke the grace period. And the premise of rewarding yesterday”s buyers says that either it will trigger, or not triggering will be ignored by no-bias trending.

Posted in Post-open Review, S&P