Post-open review

Trades are like trolleys. If you miss one, another will arrive momentarily.

As suspected, yesterday”s “50b Euro” leak was still a work-in-progress. Criticism was taken to heart, and the actual commitment was increased 20%. 

As suspected, the news was productive. Its likely objective was 2041.00-2044.00, but it actually triggered a 10-point surge to 2047.00. And that was after already firming 3 points from a pullback to 2034.00.

As suspected, the reaction would be vulnerable to peaking. Whether immediate, this afternoon, or next week, the reaction should be reversed by a downleg back to last week”s lows.

About that last suspicion… 

NOT suspected was an almost immediate reaction down. NOT opening back under a prior low like 2034.00 kept price within 2047.00”s orbit — bouncing 6 points into and out of the open did NOT disagree.

Anyway, that was wrong. A 22-point drop through the opening 15 minutes of volatility got to 2019.25.

I was late to catch that drop. At least it was still sizable. Catching the recovery has probed to be the bigger trade:

Usually, rejecting tests of both bias-up parameters (2033.00 signal and its 2038.25 target) through 10:15 would put into play offsetting tests of their bias-down counterparts. Not necessarily. Rewarding those sellers too quickly could limit the reward. Already holding a test of the 2021.75 bias-down signal did just that.

But wait, there”s more…

The 2033.00 bias-up signal was touched again, within 3 minutes of 10:15. That invoked the grace period through 10:30, which triggered “late bias-up.” And now the post-open peak is being retested by a fresh session high at 2045.25.

About that vulnerability to reversing the ECB rally back down to last week”s lows… Maybe not. This morning”s reaction down came before the bias environment even began. Its round-trip recovery may have refueled the rally. The next higher objective is 2059.00 .