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Post-open review – If, Then… Market Timing

Post-open review

Getting ahead of itself.

Exceeding 2028.50 through 9:45 made the 2026.50 bias-up target likely to be exceeded through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Its renewed bias-up target(s) stretched as high as 2035.00. The first half-hour had attacked it already to within 2 ticks by 10:15.

That was the high. Choppy ranging through 10:30 has broken lower. Sharply lower — 2022.25 was just touched.

The premise of a renewed bias-up signal is that sellers are marginalized for the duration of that timing window. This would be irrelevant if that timing window only ranged flat or higher.

But this timing window is dropping. Selling pressure is being expended at a time when it”s unlikely to gain traction for the effort. The renewed bias-up premise says these sellers/shorts are being trapped.

1-minute RSI diverged positively at the pullback”s low. It has reacted up 6 points to test 2028.00. It was sudden and steep, but not yet substantial, so the bounce is not yet proof that the trapped shorts are fueling a let to fresh highs.

But that”s still the premise.