Post-open review

Bias-down target met, and held, but not rejected.

A funny thing happened on the way to rejecting the overnight dive. Recovering 2111.00 through 9:45 would have made bias-down unlikely to trigger. But bouncing 3 points into and out of the open only attacked 2111.00 to within 1 tick. 

And then reversed down. Hard.

The potential for an 8-point rally back to last week”s highs became an 8-point plunge. This morning”s 2104.25 bias-down target was probed down to 2102.50, taking RSIs oversold.

Despite having missed the opportunity to renew the bias-down signal (by exceeding the target through 10:15) this is still a bias-down environment. Usually, holding a test of the bias-down signal does define the morning”s low, and sometimes also the session”s low. But, again, this is still a bias-down environment.

Exiting the bias environment at 11:30 back above its 2109.25 bias-down signal would be bullish. So bullish as to start anticipating a complete intraday recovery, and a complete intraday recovery would confirm new highs.

One alternative scenario is the “session-long decline” that barely missed triggering. The setup wasn”t optimal, because the open spent so much time ranging around yesterday afternoon”s low before extending lower. But unless its rejected no later than coming out of the noon hour — and preferably before entering it — much lower lows today would be likely.